singing the price drop started since 2002 Professor Wei Jie, Wang extensive experience, Andy Xie, Yi Xianrong, and so the infinite zoom, has eight years, house prices in 2003 regulation of the beginning also in the more stressed the more up through 7 years. It should be said that for eight years, all the conditions have undergone fundamental changes. But many of the so-called economists, is accused by real estate economist, not even common sense are ignored. Andy Xie, who recently began to clamor chopper price drop, but every time than the crazy prices they clamor fell 80 percent, is simply nonsense.
Ye-Xiang, Department of CITIC Capital managing director. Ye an article published in the horizon is very representative. Topic is
on my jolly weekend, stopped in front of a stall, stall is a nearly 60-year old woman, her face do not see much wisdom. The following is my conversation with her: I asked:
hear me mention inflation, woman eyes flash,
my mind a move, nodded,
too much, we in Hong Kong means
I suddenly found that the woman is more like an economist.
micro-Bo Cai Yan yesterday issued a small article about Beijing vegetables:
Beijing Cai Fanzi that total with the van pull the food into the city was fine, so the vegetable prices to rise. Beijing traffic management within the freight is the largest fishing law enforcement, because according to the traffic control department under the 30 million people in this city, except there is evidence of vehicles moving company, then no one can be on the freight car. All the van can only be used Gold Cup, like the passenger side of the car a thick film paste. Traffic police to fine a special section on the van at the intersection, a length of one accurate.
This is the basic knowledge of life.
the statement by Professor Zhang Wuchang: economics is common sense. Economists have been just out of our so-called common sense and there, and even in all fields regardless of common sense, bad-mouthing our school economists, peasant woman selling vegetables in IQ than the knowledge of very much worse. Of course, for the real estate market, these so-called economists quite shy.
obviously unreasonable appropriate time node control land supply due to large amount of error reduction, and the price of land rose from the impact of purchasing and storage phase, due to the impact of building materials costs, due to manual substantially increase the cost impact due to the impact of increased taxes, etc., resulting in house prices since the beginning of 2007 turns up the process of land, we are irrelevant due to the so-called excess liquidity, due to 4 trillion rescue cause inflation expectations. Subprime mortgage crisis in the United States after a quarter, start rescue policy, only the policy of stimulating housing consumption, as four trillion investment in infrastructure, is about later. And 1997 Asian financial crisis, we promptly started the real estate market, driven by domestic demand, the economy out of the trough. It should be said, thanks to our 50 years of home improvement debt, and capital construction of 4 trillion plus housing improvement driven, have been at the bottom of the financial crisis, China's economy rapidly out of the quagmire. This is the minimum price to do the greatest things. Real estate and investment real estate people contributed. Confidence is more important than gold, beginning in 2009 shouted the slogan, we economists have confidence? No.
well-known real estate expert Mr Cao spoiler at the end of 2008 claimed that in 2009 China's GDP growth of 6 percent negative, when the ice shouting prices fell 45-80%. 2009 will be the first year of China's real estate avalanche. Their analysis based on a completely lost confidence in the Chinese economy on the basis of.
and 9.29 after the New Deal, the property market decline were once flicker. Xie prices peaked, to drop 80%, 80% price drop chopper's remarks, and some simply not on the table, such as a small investor in Shenzhen's housing prices fell remarks, regardless of basic facts, but also regardless of common sense. Faced with an increasingly difficult demolition, in the face of the land can not increase supply. Protection of housing construction in the face of segregation caused by commercial land commercial land situation will be drastically reduced, the manufacturing industry panic, to mislead consumers.
of course, believe that their people have less and less. The real strength of the crowd buyers and investors will not continue to focus their remarks. Whether the cost factor, not only can not increase or decrease the supply of land and a sharp (including the protection of housing and housing land supply), prices are unlikely crash situation. More should be concerned about is how to restrict a new round of prices skyrocketing.
However, we limit the purchase of loans at the same time, the issue of the demolition process will result in land purchasing and storage of even more difficult.
reported: November 10, the State Council executive meeting of the deployment regulate rural land remediation and urban and rural construction sites linked to the pilot. Which stressed the need to fully respect the wishes of farmers, and other aspects involved in merge village land remediation, must be by the rural collective economic organizations and farmers decide not to build and so more demolitions within the meaning of strong.
under consideration with the new Land Management Law and Regulations in the direction of resettlement are to respect the right of residents and farmers of the land, I believe the new law and new regulations with public opinion, the future of the land acquisition work will be very difficult, and cost rapidly improved.
a development practice, we obviously feel more and more time to extend the land development, even if local authorities want to increase the supply of land, lower costs for land, the reality is that conditions had fundamentally change. Regardless of the protection of land available for housing or real estate is only one channel. The demolitions are not to be encouraged, then we will be more difficult to increase the demolition.
All these factors have resulted in serious short supply, while efforts to curb housing prices, land prices can not be done in addition to suppression, the real estate development costs in addition to profits, all costs are not development companies can be controlled. Then try to rely on administrative means to control the prices, please control the prices of upstream products. They cover too broad real estate industry itself is to solve financial, organizational resources, capital operation enterprises. Profitability is the various aspects. The number of upstream and downstream industries, price control is very difficult.
hand more and more frequent control of overweight, there is only one reason: demand can not be solved. Price drop based on the serious situation in short supply. And housing prices turn around fast. In the case of housing is really loose, steering is the inevitable choice, do not buy land is a natural choice, there is more to deal with the art.
prices fell, in some people's dream, but impossible in reality.
